A journey through future possibilities, a pathway for the next 15 years with Latin America in 2030 as the end station.

The project

The process of creating the scenarios for Latin America began in 2014 with the identification of a team of 37 influential leaders from the region. These representatives from different social spheres, including politics, academia, private sector, and civil society, made up the Scenario Team (ST).

A round of 65 interviews with well-known people and key actors in the region, including all of the members of the ST, followed. These interviews served as an initial guide to establish the fundamental thematic variables of the process.

The ST met in December 2014 and January and April 2015 in three 3-day workshops to construct the scenarios. Each workshop included a wide range of profiles and perspectives (sectors, ideologies, professions, disciplines, etc.), developing a holistic approach to the different opportunities and challenges to the democratic system in the region in the short, medium, and long terms.

Based on the proposed scenarios, the team designed a communication strategy to spread key messages about the challenges to democracy in the region and forge commitments in accordance with the formulated narratives. In this way, the process led by the ST members seeks to promote strategies to impact public opinion, academic debate, and political action, and to be a vital support and basis for dialogue and action in Latin America.

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Scenario planning is a methodology that developed several decades ago in major businesses and organizations around the world, where it has proven its great usefulness in supporting strategic decisions in complex social, economic, and political contexts. It was initially developed for identifying emergent challenges in military environments and then adapted in the business world, so teams could explore future possibilities and plan corporate strategies with a holistic view of the opportunities and risks.

The methodology also proved useful in complex social, economic, and political contexts since its application in the 1990s in South Africa, a country that was facing the challenges of the transition to democracy. Since then, and under the name of Transformative Scenario Planning, it has been implemented in various countries and different settings, leading to the development of a new shared language and new perspectives and points of view that improve the systemic understanding of complex problems, as well as to the establishment of new relationships and new intentions that facilitate the solution of problems through collective action.

The Transformative Scenario Planning methodology has six stages oriented toward the definition of possible scenarios and agreement on concrete actions around the learnings gained throughout the process:

Theory of Change


The core component of this exercise in Transformative Scenario Planning—the Scenario Team—consisted of a heterogeneous group of 37 Latin American leaders from academia, government, parliamentary and municipal institutions, civil society, producer organizations, youth groups, social movements, business, journalism, indigenous groups, churches, and foundations. They are respected actors in their own areas and, as a team, brought a wide range of knowledge, experiences, and perspectives that allowed them to work together, through dialogue, to build a broad vision of the topic.

The scenario-building process included the creation of a deeper understanding of what has happened, what is happening, and what could happen in the coming decades in Latin American democracies. However, this does not imply that all members of the Scenario Team agreed on all of the elements of the four potential paths toward the future. Consequently, the list of the Scenario Team members presented below does not represent an implicit consensus on strategy recommendations, but is simply the people themselves: a diverse group of committed and conscious leaders who worked together with the hope that these scenarios might encourage a series of dialogues in the region on the future of democratic institutions in Latin America, helping to catalyze change toward a more democratic, fair, prosperous, and secure region in the 21st century.

Scenario Team

Director Regional para América Latina y el Caribe de Open Society Foundations
Naschla Aburman
Naschla AburmanChile
Presidenta de la Federación de Estudiantes Universidad Católica de Chile (FEUC) 2013-2014
Laura Albornoz Pollman
Laura Albornoz PollmanChile
Académica de la Facultad de Derecho de la Universidad de Chile
Ivana Bentes
Ivana BentesBRAZIL
Investigadora de la Escuela de Comunicación de la UFRJ y Coordinadora de Pontão de Cultura Digital de ECO/UFRJ
Nabil Bonduki
Nabil BondukiBRAZIL
Concejal de la Cámara Municipal de Sao Paulo
Luis Javier Castro Lachner
Luis Javier Castro LachnerCosta Rica
Socio Director de Mesoamérica y Presidente de la Asociación Empresarial para el Desarrollo
Óscar Chacón
Óscar ChacónEl Salvador
Director Ejecutivo de NALACC (Alianza Nacional de Comunidades Latinoamericanas y Caribeñas)
Wálter Delgadillo Terceros
Wálter Delgadillo TercerosBOLIVIA
Ciudadano boliviano
Nilcéa Freire
Nilcéa FreireBRAZIL
Representante en BRAZIL de la Fundación Ford
Rossana Fuentes Berain
Rossana Fuentes BerainMEXICO
Fundadora de MEXICO Media Lab S21
Manuel Garrido
Manuel GarridoArgentina
Diputado Nacional
María Beatriz (Pilu) Giraudo
María Beatriz (Pilu) GiraudoArgentina
Presidenta de Aapresid (Asociación Argentina de Productores en Siembra Directa)
Nega Gizza
Nega GizzaBRAZIL
Conferencista y presentadora de la Central Unica das Favelas (CUFA)
Gustavo Gorriti
Gustavo GorritiPeru
Director de IDL-Reporteros
Carlos Hernández
Carlos HernándezHonduras
Presidente de la Junta Directiva de Asociación para una Sociedad Más Justa
Miguel Lago
Miguel LagoBRAZIL
Socio Fundador de Meu Rio
Juan Pablo Luna
Juan Pablo LunaUruguay
Profesor Asociado del Instituto de Ciencia Política, PUC-Chile
Otilia Lux de Cotí
Otilia Lux de CotíGuatemala
Directora Ejecutiva del Foro Internacional de Mujeres Indígenas
Carlos March
Carlos MarchArgentina
Director de Comunicación Estratégica de Fundación Avina
María Consuelo Mejía Piñeros
María Consuelo Mejía PiñerosMEXICO
Directora de Católicas por el Derecho a Decidir A. C.
Zulia Mena
Alcaldesa del Municipio de Quibdó
Carlos Hugo Molina
Carlos Hugo MolinaBOLIVIA
Innovation Director at CEPAD
Ricardo Morel
Ricardo MorelPERU
Vicepresidente de Asuntos Corporativos de la Compañía Minera Antamina
Nohra Padilla Herrera
Nohra Padilla HerreraCOLOMBIA
Presidenta de la Asociación Nacional de Recicladores de Colombia, ANR
Susel Paredes Piqué
Susel Paredes PiquéPERU
Abogada, activista, dirigente política
Claudia Paz y Paz
Claudia Paz y PazGuatemala
Ex Fiscal General
Thamy Pogrebinschi
Thamy PogrebinschiBRAZIL
Investigadora Sénior del WZB Berlin Social Science Center y Profesora de Ciencia Política en el Instituto de Estudios Sociales y Políticos de la Universidad del Estado de Río de Janeiro (IESP-UERJ)
Miguel Pulido
Miguel PulidoMEXICO
Director Ejecutivo de Fundar, Centro de Análisis e Investigación, A. C.
Antonia Rodríguez
Antonia RodríguezBOLIVIA
Directora Ejecutiva de ASARBOLSEM
Maria Paula Romo
Maria Paula RomoECUADOR
Directora del Movimiento Ruptura
Eugenio Scarpellini
Eugenio ScarpelliniBOLIVIA
Obispo de la Diócesis de El Alto
Schuma Schumaher
Schuma SchumaherBRAZIL
Activista feminista, escritora y Coordinadora Ejecutiva de la Rede de Desenvolvimento Humano (REDEH)
Alexander Segovia
Alexander SegoviaEl Salvador
Presidente del Instituto Centroamericano de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo y el Cambio Social (INCIDE)
Jorge Soto
Jorge SotoMEXICO
Director General Adjunto de Innovación Cívica, Coordinación de Estrategia Digital
León Valencia Agudelo
León Valencia AgudeloCOLOMBIA
Director Ejecutivo de la Fundación Paz y Reconciliación en Colombia
Edwin Vásquez Campos
Edwin Vásquez CamposPERU
Coordinador General de COICA
Jean Wyllis
Jean WyllisBRAZIL
Diputado Federal

Coordination, design, facilitation, Logistics, Knowledge Management, Communications and Evaluation

Mille Bojer
Mille BojerDENMARK
General coordination, design, facilitation, interviews
Elena Díez Pinto
Elena Díez PintoGuatemala
Design, facilitation, interviews
Anaí Linares
Anaí LinaresMEXICO
Logistics, interviews
Mariana Miranda
Mariana MirandaBRAZIL
Knowledge management, communication, co-facilitation
Juan Morris
Juan MorrisArgentina
Documentation, scenarios report production, interviews
Tomas Rosenfeld
Tomas RosenfeldBRAZIL
Synthesis of interviews, documentation, financial management
Tiê Franco Brotto
Tiê Franco BrottoBrasil
Documentação, Comunicação
Lucilene Danciguer
Lucilene DanciguerBRAZIL
Guests reception,co-facilitation
Antonio Araníbar Arze
Antonio Araníbar ArzeArgentina
Support for the construction of scenarios

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